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Comfort Systems Stock Up 16% Since Q3 Earnings: Right Time to Buy Yet?

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Key Takeaways

  • Q3 EPS surged 102% YoY to $8.25, driven by data center demand, strong public spending and smart acquisitions.
  • FIX's record $9.38B backlog and dividend hike highlight financial strength and shareholder focus.
  • Comfort Systems' scalable model, Fed-driven growth tailwinds and sector edge bode well.

Comfort Systems USA (FIX - Free Report) has gained 15.8% since the release of its third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 23, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Air Conditioner and Heating industry, the broader Construction sector and the S&P 500 Index.

This Texas-based heating, ventilation, air conditioning and electrical contracting service provider’s third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $8.25 per share and revenues of $2.45 billion topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 33.1% and 13.7%, respectively. Year over year, the metrics grew 101.7% and 35.4%, respectively, driven by ongoing support from the elevated public infrastructure spending, favorable developments in a few late-stage projects and incremental contributions from the Right Way and Century acquisitions.

Robust demand trends in its Technology sector, especially for data centers, are boding well for the company amid its disciplined bidding efforts and continued innovation in automation and AI-driven fabrication. Additionally, FIX’s solid liquidity position, strategic acquisitions and shareholder value are notable aspects.

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Let us dive into understanding the factors that are driving Comfort Systems’ momentum.

Market Trends Favoring Growth

The increased public spending scenario in the United States is driving project wins for Comfort Systems, given its exposure to large-scale projects. The market is thriving with projects for technology advancements, digital innovations and sustainable alternatives, which are benefiting firms like FIX. As of Sept. 30, 2025, the company had a record backlog of $9.38 billion, with a same-store backlog of $9.2 billion, indicating year-over-year increases of 65.1% and 62%, respectively. Robust gains from the Technology sector due to increased demand for data center-related activities are fueling growth prospects. So far in 2025, the Technology sector contributed 42% of the total revenues, reflecting growth from 32% a year ago.

Catalyzing the market trends comes the recent Fed rate cut and the optimism surrounding the same. On Sept. 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve pulled down its interest rate benchmark by 0.25 percentage points to the range of 4-4.25%, leaving room for two more rate cuts in the remainder of 2025. Lower financing costs are expected to spur investments in the large-scale projects across markets that are served by Comfort Systems.

Accretive Acquisitions

Comfort Systems’ efforts to undergo strategic acquisitions are boding well for its revenue visibility and margin scale. During the first nine months of 2025, the company’s revenues grew 25.1% year over year to $6.46 billion, to which the acquisitions of Right Way, Century, Summit and J&S contributed about 2.3%. Moreover, during the same time frame, the 59.2% year-over-year rise in gross profit was due to a 1.2% increase related to the Right Way and Century acquisitions, among other contributing factors.

On Oct. 1, 2025, FIX acquired two electrical companies based in Western Michigan and Southern Florida, FZ Electrical and Meisner Electric, respectively. These acquisitions will enhance Comfort Systems' market presence across industrial and health care capabilities, and combinedly are expected to deliver more than $200 million of incremental annual revenues and $15-$20 million of incremental annual EBITDA.

Strong Liquidity Position

Owing to the strong leverage from top-line growth and favorable market trends, Comfort Systems ended the third quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $860.5 million, up from $549.9 million as of 2024. As of the first nine months of 2025, cash provided by operating activities was $717.8 million, up from $638.6 million reported in the year-ago comparable period. The company currently has sufficient liquidity to meet its short-term obligations of $4.7 million.

Apart from maintaining a stable liquidity position, FIX also ensures to keep its shareholders satisfied through share repurchases and dividend payments. During the first nine months of 2025, it repurchased 0.3 million shares for approximately $125.4 million under the repurchase program. Also, on Oct. 23, 2025, Comfort Systems’ board of directors hiked the quarterly dividend payment by 20% to 60 cents per share ($2.40 per share annually). The dividend is payable on Nov. 24, 2025, to shareholders as of Nov. 13.

ROE of FIX Stock

Comfort Systems’ trailing 12-month ROE of 43.6% significantly exceeds its industry peers’ average, underscoring its efficiency in generating shareholder returns.

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Comfort Systems’ Market Competition

Comfort Systems faces substantial competition in the market, particularly from EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME - Free Report) , AECOM (ACM - Free Report) and Carrier Global Corporation (CARR - Free Report) .

EMCOR competes with a broader scale and deep electrical/mechanical capabilities and has been consolidating through big acquisitions and growing remaining performance obligations, pressuring peers on large integrated projects. AECOM’s strength is global design and engineering scale for infrastructure megaprojects and an expanding design backlog. At the same time, Carrier Global brings product innovation, aftermarket growth and large manufacturing investments that drive technology-led demand for efficient HVAC solutions.

Comfort Systems’ decentralized operating model enables it to capture regional commercial, healthcare, data-center and public-infrastructure work quickly, while serial acquisitions accelerate scale in attractive geographies. Thus, FIX’s record pipeline, acquisition cadence and contractor-focused model position it well to convert favoring market trends into outsized growth relative to its market peers, like EMCOR, AECOM and Carrier Global.

Earnings Estimate Trend Favors FIX

FIX’s earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have trended upward over the past 30 days to $26.31 and $30.61 per share, respectively. The estimated figures for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year growth of 80.2% and 16.4%, respectively.

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The robust market fundamentals and FIX’s strategic initiatives to curb the adverse impacts of macro uncertainties are likely to have induced bullish sentiments among analysts.

FIX’s Premium Valuation

FIX stock is currently trading at a premium compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.83, as evidenced by the chart below. The overvaluation of the stock compared with its industry peers indicates its strong potential in the market, with the favorable trends backing it up.

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Is It Still Worth Adding FIX to the Portfolio?

As discussed above, Comfort Systems continues to capitalize on strong demand from the Technology segment, especially data centers, which contributed 42% of total revenues in 2025 compared with 32% last year. Moreover, expanding the acquisition portfolio and disciplined project execution position it for sustained top-line momentum.

Additionally, a solid liquidity profile, rising dividends and share buybacks underscore its financial strength and shareholder-friendly policies. With upward-trending earnings estimates and an industry-leading ROE, FIX stands out as a strong growth play, despite a premium valuation.

Analysts’ optimism regarding FIX stock is reflected in seven of the nine recommendations, pointing to a "Strong Buy”, representing 77.78% of all recommendations.

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Overall, strong market fundamentals and favorable technical indicators make this current Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock an appealing buy for investors now. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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